Wednesday, August 22, 2012


My article below is now in the OpEd section of Arutz Sheva News:
What Really is in Store for Israel if Iran has the Bomb.

Don't count on anyone from our side to push the button.

Back in 2006 I wrote about Iran’s nuclear program for Arutz Sheva and - so far - what I predicted back then is coming true.

Anyone who has followed this crucial issue knows that for the last six years at least, both the Israeli and US intelligence communities have been saying that Iran is only one or two years away from having a nuclear bomb.

Now we’re hearing it again: the Iranians are only a year or two from developing the Bomb, Israel must strike, the US must strike, we can’t let the Iranians have the Bomb.
Of course, they are absolutely right. But in the grey area of what should happen and what will actually happen, we have to look at history.

After the US rightfully dropped two nuclear bombs on the Japanese, ending World War II and saving not only American lives, but also those of Japanese who would have fought to the death for their emperor, leftist intellectuals working with communist spies and sympathizers managed to get America’s nuclear secrets to Stalin’s Soviet Russia.

The nuclear Cold War was on. Some intellectuals felt they had to give America’s nuclear secrets to the Russians out of a quest for “peace”, feeling that if the Russians had parity with the US, it would fear using the Bomb in a conflict. They were right, but they also gave the Communists a cudgel to wield as they practiced their policy of imperialism and extremism all around the world.

Sadly, many of the Americans who gave the Soviets the information or facilitated its transfer were disaffected Jews like J. Robert Oppenheimer (a creator of the Bomb) and Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. The Rosenbergs, especially, can be equated with the “Jewish” ISM activists of today, running around passionately for Hamas and Iran.
Israel has a leftist community, some of them communists, some of them just plain stupid, who would gladly facilitate the same situation for Israel that befell the United States.

Mordecai Vanunu was already a known leftist when he was hired to work in Dimona and it should come as no surprise to an Israeli government that released the likes of Samir Kuntar and thousands of other terrorists, that he betrayed Israel’s nuclear secrets.

The Mossad, not the TV-type Mossad we have today, kidnapped Vanunu and brought him back to Israel where today he is a celebrity of the Left. He should have been executed for treason, or at least given life in prison.

Instead, he converted to Christianity and, more or less, is under house arrest and cannot leave Israel. The same types of Americans who enabled Stalin to get the Bomb were no different than those Israelis, like Vanunu, who would do the same to enable Israel’s enemies in the interest of “peace.”

Then the Chinese began developing nuclear weapons. During the election campaign being fought between Barry Goldwater and Lyndon Johnson, the Democrats ran a campaign ad that won them the election. Goldwater had advocated bombing the Chinese nuclear facilities to prevent the Chinese from acquiring the Bomb. The Democrats ran TV ads of an exploding nuclear device, warning Americans that voting for Goldwater could lead to war and a nuclear conflagration with the Russians. Johnson won by a landslide.

War was supposedly averted while the Chinese did get the Bomb. However, a lower intensity conflict came about in Vietnam, a Chinese and Russian client state. Developed. America had to consider facing the Chinese Bomb when dealing with North Vietnamese incursions.

We all know the outcome of that war. Over 50,000 Americans paid with their lives in a war that drained America’s Great Society of its loftier goals. This was still considered better than a massive war with the Soviets and Chinese, against whom the US had only achieved a draw years earlier in Korea.

Today, Israel faces the same abyss. One has only to look at Czechoslovakia before World War II to see history repeating itself.

War is too unimaginable to democratic states to go through again, so appeasement is the order of the day. Appeasement at all costs. For totalitarians, war is a solidifier of control when it’s against outsiders.

Unfortunately, the Jews always get caught in the middle. Jews were, according to the Germans, the reason Germany lost the previous war. Today, Israel as a Jewish state, is falsely accused of being the cause for all the turmoil and poverty in the totalitarian Arab world. America traditionally appeases that totalitarian world by reining in Israel and pressuring the Jewish state to make unreasonable and dangerous territorial compromises.

As for the Iranians today, the mullahs are the new Hitler. Ali Khamenei, the top Mullah in Iran is ill and dying. He cannot take with him all the perks that go with being top dog in a dictatorship. So the temptation of going out in a blaze of glory is a definite possibility.

Nevertheless, the other mullahs certainly envy his spot and would love to step in, if not as supreme ruler, then at least as one of the prosperous inner circle. Mutual self-destruction might deter them from following with a nuclear attack after Khamenei dies, but it’s possible that elements within the regime might give such weapons to the likes of Al Qaeda to destroy the US.

Even a limited war would temporarily close the Straits of Hormuz and at least temporarily throw the world’s economy into a tailspin. That tailspin would affect the Iranians as well, so neither side - probably - is going to want to go that route.
Israel will be the new Vietnam proxy. Hizbullah and Hamas will attack from the North and South and chop away bit by bit for Iran.

A new Palestinian state in the 'West Bank' will also become another Iranian proxy.
Whereas Vietnam was a fascist dictatorship fighting a communist dictatorship, Israel is a democracy and will thus put up a better fight. But America’s State Department is now betting on an alliance with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, and their taking control of Israel’s Arab neighbors to counterbalance the Shiites in Iran.

At the same time, the US is hedging its bets by building a Palestinian Arab Army in the 'West Bank' under US training and leadership. General Keith Dayton, the US trainer, has already stated this army will attack the IDF in two years if Israel doesn’t create a Palestinian state.

So what’s in store for Israel? The Iranians will not be stopped from developing the Bomb any more than China was by the US.

Israel, as the free democratic West’s aircraft carrier, will become the new Vietnam, picked away at by Islamic armies, sometimes with and sometimes without US help.
The CIA estimates are that if a nuclear war erupts between Israel and the Arabs, that Israel will prevail but lose 200,000 people in a pyrrhic victory.

It’s cheaper to lose a few Israelis to terror attacks now and then rather than go to a full blown war. Israel currently has more yearly traffic fatalities than deaths from terrorist attacks.

So Israelis should brace themselves for a new Cold War with Iran and the US, that will leave tiny Israel with the status quo and still no peace.

The only thing that’s going to change is the threat from Israel’s totalitarian enemies; that will continue to get worse.

Hizbullah in Lebanon went from a few thousand missiles to 50,000 that can now strike Tel Aviv. Iran’s getting the Bomb will only bring Armageddon that much closer, but don’t plan on anyone on our side pushing the button until our backs are completely to the wall.

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